One of the strangest phenomenons you will find in corporate life in Colombia is the movement of the Colombian Peso against the US Dollar. Changes of 10% in a day and even 30% over a month are not strange to me anymore and dealing here with international business feels like playing roulette. There seems to be absolutely no logic behind the changes. When things should theoretically go up, they go down or not…however the wind blows basically.
Today for example you get about 2550COP for 1USD, last year august that was only 1800COP per USD. An increase of almost 50%!!!
Something that goes hand in hand with this, should be the exchange houses that give you more Pesos for your Dollar than any bank will give you. Also they give you more Dollars for your Peso…should be a business there no? I have not thought about it that deeply yet but maybe it would be a good idea to give it a closer look.
So why do these two phenomenons occur? Supposedly it has to do with the difference in inflation between Colombia and other countries and the economic growth, but do not ask me to explain as it will require me some hours of study and boredom…
One good quote I found in a article about the predictions of the exchange rate:
A general once told his weather-forecasting team;
“I appreciate being informed that your forecasts are no better than random, but please keep sending
them on, as the army needs your predictions for planning purposes.”